I wrote a short piece for The Conversation (picked up today by the International Business Times) on Britain’s post-Brexit bargaining power in trade deals. While yesterday’s vote injects more uncertainty into the Brexit process and potential outcome, the only way the UK can hope to gain some leverage in negotiations with the US would be…
Category: Policy
Trading Trump
The results of this week’s US election went widely unanticipated by polls and markets. Now that Trump is switching from candidate mode to presidential mode, many questions remain surrounding the composition of the Trump administration and what that could mean for policy with Republican control over the presidency and both houses of Congress over at…
International negotiations as a two-level game
One of the recurring themes in IPE research is that domestic politics can have a significant impact on international outcomes. From institutions (Broz & Plouffe 2010; Mansfield, Milner & Pevehouse 2007) to the influence of partisanship (Putnam 1988; Milner & Rosendorff 1997), variations at the domestic level shape both policy makers’ actions and policy outcomes….
Weak Sterling and Economic Growth
Recent figures appear give the UK fairly healthy GDP growth projections for this year relative to other OECD members. While this has been interpreted by Brexit apologists as a sign of prosperity to come, such an interpretation is gravely mistaken. Britain’s current ‘growth’ comes down to two things: the basic math behind growth accounting and…
Investment and the Bank of England
While the Bank of England elected to maintain the 0.25% base interest rate, there’s been consistent speculation over a rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) – from 0.25% to 0.10%. This comes in light of a lot of doubts over central bankers’ dwindling powers, particularly in the face of some of the more…
Post-Brexit Trade
The French president, Francois Hollande, has reiterated what I expect to be a standard line among EU leaders: no common market without free movement, which stands in stark contrast with the Leave campaign’s pipe dream of full common-market access and no movement. Intuitively, the solution to this bargaining game will lie somewhere between these two…